Q: Who creates this analysis?

This site is built by Shift Media , a digital public affairs studio. We combine AI-assisted analysis with editorial oversight to produce budget breakdowns at a speed and scale that traditional methods can't match. Every number on this site is sourced from official Government of Alberta budget documents. The analysis layer — what it means for you, your sector, or your organization — is where our technology and editorial judgment come in.

Q: What is Flashbulb?

Flashbulb is a media and legislative intelligence tool created by Stephen Taylor and available exclusively to Shift Media. It ingests government documents — budgets, legislation, Hansard transcripts, regulatory filings — and produces structured analysis, audience-targeted summaries, and publication-ready content at speeds that traditional research teams can't match. albertabudget.ca is a live demonstration: 95 pages of sourced budget analysis generated in under an hour on budget day. Flashbulb is not a chatbot or a generic AI wrapper — it's a purpose-built intelligence suite for organizations that need to understand and respond to government action fast.

Q: How is the content generated?

This site is powered by Flashbulb , a media and legislative intelligence tool created by Stephen Taylor and available exclusively to Shift Media. Flashbulb extracts raw text from the official budget PDFs published by the Government of Alberta, then runs a structured intelligence suite to produce normalized data, sector-by-sector analysis, audience-specific summaries, and stakeholder memos. Each piece of content is generated from a purpose-built prompt template that enforces sourcing requirements, factual grounding, and clear attribution. The result is approximately 95 unique pages of analysis produced in under an hour from the moment the budget PDFs are published.

Q: Is this affiliated with the Government of Alberta?

No. albertabudget.ca is entirely independent. We are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or funded by the Government of Alberta or any political party. All analysis is based on publicly available budget documents downloaded from open.alberta.ca . Our goal is to make fiscal policy more accessible, not to advocate for any particular position.

Q: What is the difference between operating and capital spending?

Operating spending covers the day-to-day costs of running government — salaries for nurses and teachers, program delivery, grants to organizations, and ministry administration. Capital spending funds long-term infrastructure like hospitals, schools, highways, and transit systems. Alberta publishes these separately: operating budgets appear in the Government Estimates, while capital investments are detailed in the Capital Plan. Both matter — operating spending determines service quality today, while capital spending shapes the province's capacity for decades.

Question 1

What is albertabudget.ca?

Accepted Answer

albertabudget.ca is an independent analysis platform that breaks down Alberta's provincial budget into plain-language summaries for every sector, audience, and stakeholder group. The site is produced by Shift Media, a digital public affairs studio that builds campaign websites for ideas and policy. We produced this entire site — 95 pages of sourced analysis — in under an hour on budget day using Flashbulb, a media and legislative intelligence tool created by Stephen Taylor and available exclusively to Shift Media.

Question 2

Who creates this analysis?

Accepted Answer

This site is built by Shift Media, a digital public affairs studio. We combine AI-assisted analysis with editorial oversight to produce budget breakdowns at a speed and scale that traditional methods can't match. Every number on this site is sourced from official Government of Alberta budget documents. The analysis layer — what it means for you, your sector, or your organization — is where our technology and editorial judgment come in.

Question 3

What is Flashbulb?

Accepted Answer

Flashbulb is a media and legislative intelligence tool created by Stephen Taylor and available exclusively to Shift Media. It ingests government documents — budgets, legislation, Hansard transcripts, regulatory filings — and produces structured analysis, audience-targeted summaries, and publication-ready content at speeds that traditional research teams can't match. albertabudget.ca is a live demonstration: 95 pages of sourced budget analysis generated in under an hour on budget day. Flashbulb is not a chatbot or a generic AI wrapper — it's a purpose-built intelligence suite for organizations that need to understand and respond to government action fast.

Question 4

How is the content generated?

Accepted Answer

This site is powered by Flashbulb, a media and legislative intelligence tool created by Stephen Taylor and available exclusively to Shift Media. Flashbulb extracts raw text from the official budget PDFs published by the Government of Alberta, then runs a structured intelligence suite to produce normalized data, sector-by-sector analysis, audience-specific summaries, and stakeholder memos. Each piece of content is generated from a purpose-built prompt template that enforces sourcing requirements, factual grounding, and clear attribution. The result is approximately 95 unique pages of analysis produced in under an hour from the moment the budget PDFs are published.

Question 5

Is this affiliated with the Government of Alberta?

Accepted Answer

No. albertabudget.ca is entirely independent. We are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or funded by the Government of Alberta or any political party. All analysis is based on publicly available budget documents downloaded from open.alberta.ca. Our goal is to make fiscal policy more accessible, not to advocate for any particular position.

Question 6

Can I trust the numbers on this site?

Accepted Answer

Every figure on this site is sourced from official Government of Alberta budget documents — the Fiscal Plan, Government Estimates, Capital Plan, and Ministry Business Plans. Source citations appear at the bottom of each page. That said, this is AI-assisted analysis and we recommend verifying critical figures against the original documents for high-stakes decisions. If you spot an error, contact us and we'll correct it immediately.

Question 7

What is a provincial budget?

Accepted Answer

A provincial budget is the government's financial plan for the coming fiscal year (April 1 to March 31). It lays out how much revenue the province expects to collect — from taxes, resource royalties, federal transfers, and investments — and how that money will be spent across ministries like Health, Education, and Infrastructure. Alberta's budget also includes a three-year fiscal plan with forward projections and a capital plan for infrastructure investments.

Question 8

What is the difference between operating and capital spending?

Accepted Answer

Operating spending covers the day-to-day costs of running government — salaries for nurses and teachers, program delivery, grants to organizations, and ministry administration. Capital spending funds long-term infrastructure like hospitals, schools, highways, and transit systems. Alberta publishes these separately: operating budgets appear in the Government Estimates, while capital investments are detailed in the Capital Plan. Both matter — operating spending determines service quality today, while capital spending shapes the province's capacity for decades.

Question 9

What are government estimates?

Accepted Answer

Government estimates are the detailed, ministry-by-ministry spending allocations that implement the budget. While the Fiscal Plan provides the high-level fiscal framework, the estimates break spending down to individual program lines — showing exactly how much each ministry receives and what it's earmarked for. The estimates are tabled alongside the budget and must be approved by the Legislature through the Appropriation Act before ministries can spend.

Question 10

What is a contingency allocation?

Accepted Answer

A contingency is money set aside in the budget for unexpected costs. It's included in total spending but not assigned to any ministry or program. If the contingency isn't used, it directly reduces the deficit (or increases the surplus). Alberta's contingency has historically been around $2 billion, but has been increased in recent budgets to account for trade uncertainty, commodity price volatility, and upcoming public-sector collective bargaining.

Question 11

How often is the site updated?

Accepted Answer

The full site is regenerated on budget day — typically in late February or early March — when the Government of Alberta tables its new budget. Between budgets, the content remains as-is since it reflects a point-in-time analysis of the tabled fiscal plan. If the government issues a mid-year fiscal update or supplementary estimates with material changes, we may publish additional analysis.

Question 12

What are the stakeholder notes?

Accepted Answer

Stakeholder notes are sector-specific memos written for organizations that engage with government on policy. Each note summarizes the budget measures most relevant to a particular industry or advocacy group — highlighting key numbers, risks, opportunities, suggested action items, and message framing. They're designed for government relations professionals, association leaders, and anyone preparing a post-budget response.

Question 13

Can Shift build something like this for my organization?

Accepted Answer

Yes. albertabudget.ca is a demonstration of what Shift Media builds for organizations working in public affairs, policy advocacy, and political campaigns. If you need a digital platform that communicates complex ideas clearly — whether it's a policy campaign site, a budget response hub, an issue advocacy platform, or an election readiness tool — we'd like to hear from you. Subscribe to our newsletter or reach out at shiftmedia.substack.com.

Question 14

Frequently Asked Questions: Alberta Budget 2025

Accepted Answer

Is Alberta running a deficit or surplus? {#deficit-or-surplus}

Yes, Alberta is running a deficit. Budget 2025 projects a $5.2 billion deficit in 2025-26, followed by deficits of $2.4 billion in 2026-27 and $2.0 billion in 2027-28. This is a significant reversal from the $5.8 billion surplus forecast for 2024-25.

The deficit is driven by two factors: revenue falling $6.6 billion (mainly from lower oil prices and investment income) and spending increasing $4.4 billion (including a doubling of the contingency to $4 billion). Alberta's fiscal framework allows deficits when revenue drops by $1 billion or more from the prior year, but requires a return to balanced budgets within three years.

Source: Fiscal Plan 2025-28, p.7, 17

Will my taxes change? {#tax-changes}

Yes — your provincial income taxes are going down. Effective January 1, 2025, a new 8 per cent tax bracket applies to the first $60,000 of taxable income, down from the current 10 per cent rate. This saves individuals up to $750 per year. Albertans earning less than $60,000 will see a 20 per cent reduction in their provincial income taxes.

Most taxpayers will see the benefit on their paycheques after July 1, 2025, when payroll withholdings are adjusted. There is no change to corporate income tax rates, no new sales tax, and fuel taxes remain unchanged. Alberta continues to have the lowest overall tax burden of any province.

Source: Fiscal Plan 2025-28, p.8

What oil price is the budget based on? {#oil-price}

The budget assumes West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil will average US$68 per barrel in 2025-26, down from US$74 in 2024-25. The price is expected to gradually recover to US$71.50 by 2027-28.

This matters because oil prices directly affect Alberta's royalty revenue. A $1/barrel drop in WTI reduces provincial revenue by approximately $750 million. The light-heavy differential (the discount on Alberta's heavier crude) is expected to widen to US$17.10/bbl, further reducing royalty income. Bitumen royalties are forecast at $12.8 billion, down $4 billion from 2024-25.

Source: Fiscal Plan 2025-28, Economic Outlook, p.21; Revenue, p.63

How much is being spent on healthcare? {#healthcare-spending}

Health is the province's largest spending area at $24 billion total expense in 2025-26, including $22.1 billion in operating expense. The health system is being restructured into four new provincial agencies:

Acute Care Alberta (hospitals, emergency, cancer care): $4.6 billion
Assisted Living Alberta (continuing care, home care): $3.8 billion
Primary Care Alberta (family medicine, nurse practitioners): $322 million
Recovery Alberta (addiction treatment and recovery)

Physician compensation and development is budgeted at $7.0 billion. The Seniors Drug Program supports over 700,000 seniors at $863 million. Health spending grows by an average of 3.5% per year through 2027-28.

Source: Fiscal Plan 2025-28, Expense, p.71-73

What about education funding? {#education-funding}

K-12 education operating expense is $9.9 billion in 2025-26, an increase of 4.5% from the prior year. The government commits $814 million over three years for enrolment growth, responding to Alberta's population surge.

The school funding formula is being revised to use two years of enrolment data instead of three, making it more responsive to fast-growing school boards. Other investments: $1.6 billion for specialized learning needs, $55 million for classroom complexity, and $102 million over three years for career education.

Post-secondary spending is $7.4 billion total, including $135 million per year for skilled trades programs and an increase of $5 million to the Alberta Student Grant. Total scholarships are budgeted at $113 million.

Source: Fiscal Plan 2025-28, Expense, p.74-77

Is the Heritage Fund being used? {#heritage-fund}

Not to fund spending — but it is growing. The Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund balance is projected at $24.4 billion at the end of 2025-26, growing to $27.1 billion by 2027-28.

From the 2024-25 surplus, $1 billion is being allocated to the Heritage Fund under the surplus cash allocation rules. The government is also amending the fiscal framework to provide more flexibility to direct surplus cash toward the Heritage Fund or debt repayment. However, no surplus cash is expected during the three deficit years (2025-26 through 2027-28), so no additional contributions are planned.

Investment income from the Heritage Fund and other assets is forecast at $2.9 billion in 2025-26, contributing to general revenue.

Source: Fiscal Plan 2025-28, p.8, p.15-16

What about utility costs and rebates? {#utility-costs}

The Ministry of Affordability and Utilities has a budget of $160 million in operating expense and $6.4 million in capital grants. The budget does not announce new broad-based utility rebate programs for 2025-26.

The province maintains the Rate of Last Resort electricity option, with $2 million in implementation funding. Natural gas prices are expected to improve from $1.20/GJ to $2.50/GJ, which may affect utility costs for consumers, though the relationship between wholesale prices and retail bills is complex.

The new 8% income tax bracket effectively provides indirect affordability relief, saving Albertans up to $750/year regardless of utility costs.

Source: Fiscal Plan 2025-28, Expense; Government Estimates 2025-26

What is happening with AISH and disability supports? {#aish-disability}

Funding for the Assured Income for the Severely Handicapped (AISH) program is $1,641 million in 2025-26. While this is a net decrease of $49 million from the 2024-25 forecast, overall client income will be unaffected — benefits remain the same.

A new Alberta Disability Assistance Program is set to launch in 2026, which will better empower people with disabilities to work without having significant reductions applied to income assistance or medical benefits. AISH will continue to focus on those unable to work.

Other disability services programs are budgeted at $1,710 million (up $86 million), including increases for Persons with Developmental Disabilities (+$73 million) and Family Support for Children with Disabilities (+$9 million).

Source: Fiscal Plan 2025-28, Expense, p.79-80

What are U.S. tariffs and how do they affect the budget? {#tariffs}

Budget 2025 is the first Alberta budget to build U.S. tariff impacts directly into its projections. The baseline assumes 15 per cent tariffs on all Canadian goods, except energy products which face a 10 per cent tariff, with Canadian retaliation on consumer goods.

These tariffs are expected to slow Alberta's real GDP growth from 3.0% to 1.8% in 2025, push the unemployment rate to 7.4%, and reduce corporate profits. The $38 million added to Employment and Income Support in 2025-26 specifically anticipates tariff-related job losses. The contingency was doubled to $4 billion partly to address unforeseen tariff implications.

The situation remains highly uncertain — tariffs could escalate, be maintained, or be reduced, with significantly different fiscal outcomes in each scenario.

Source: Fiscal Plan 2025-28, p.10-11

How does this compare to other provinces? {#other-provinces}

Alberta maintains several fiscal advantages even in a deficit year. The province has no sales tax, the lowest personal income tax rates (now 8% on the first $60,000), and a low corporate income tax rate. Net debt-to-GDP at 8.7% is well below Ontario, Quebec, and most other provinces.

The Heritage Fund at $24.4 billion provides a savings buffer no other province has. However, Alberta's revenue volatility is much higher than other provinces due to heavy reliance on resource royalties, which constitute about 23% of total revenue and fluctuate with global commodity markets.

Source: Fiscal Plan 2025-28, Overview

When does the budget take effect? {#effective-dates}

The provincial fiscal year runs from April 1 to March 31. Budget 2025 covers the fiscal year 2025-26 (April 1, 2025 to March 31, 2026), with targets extending through 2027-28.

Key dates:

January 1, 2025: New 8% income tax bracket effective (retroactive)
February 27, 2025: Budget Day — budget tabled in Legislature
April 1, 2025: New fiscal year begins; Assisted Living Alberta launches
July 1, 2025: Payroll withholdings adjusted for new tax bracket
Spring 2025: Compassionate Intervention Act to be introduced
2026: Alberta Disability Assistance Program launches

Source: Fiscal Plan 2025-28, various sections

What is happening with affordable housing? {#affordable-housing}

The Alberta Social Housing Corporation (ASHC) receives $767 million over three years for the Affordable Housing Strategy. Operating programs supporting social, specialized, and affordable housing are budgeted at $343 million in 2025-26 (up $23 million).

ASHC programs assist over 110,000 Albertans in 60,746 households through affordable housing units, rental supplements, and other programs. Capital grants include support for Indigenous housing and $50 million per year for lodges serving lower-income seniors.

Housing starts are forecast to slow from 47,800 to 43,000 units in 2025, reflecting the economic slowdown. The Capital Plan includes $1,935 million over three years through Seniors, Community and Social Services for housing infrastructure.

Source: Fiscal Plan 2025-28, Expense, p.80-82; Economic Outlook

How much is the province borrowing? {#borrowing}

Taxpayer-supported debt is projected at $82.8 billion in 2025-26, rising to $98.4 billion by 2027-28 — an increase of $15.6 billion over three years. No surplus cash is forecast for debt repayment during the plan period.

The province repaid $13.4 billion in debt during 2022-23 and $3.2 billion in 2023-24 when resource revenues surged. That window has closed. Additional borrowing will be required to fund the deficit and capital investments. Debt servicing costs are $3.0 billion in 2025-26, rising to $3.6 billion by 2027-28.

Net debt-to-GDP rises from 7.6% to 9.3% by 2027-28, which remains moderate by Canadian provincial standards but represents a clear upward trend.

Source: Fiscal Plan 2025-28, Overview p.8; Debt and Capital Plan

Evidence basis: All figures sourced from the Fiscal Plan 2025-28 and Government Estimates of Supply 2025-26, published February 27, 2025.