Alberta Budget 2025: Non-Profit Social Service Agency Stakeholder Brief

Executive Summary

Budget 2025 delivers a 26% increase in Employment and Income Support to $1,255M, reflecting the anticipated impact of tariff-driven economic disruption and continued population growth. Disability services rise to $1,710M (+$86M), women's shelters receive an additional $19M over three years, and the Alberta Child and Family Benefit increases to $375M. However, AISH funding decreases by $49M to $1,641M amid transition to the Alberta Disability Assistance Program, and homelessness support declines $4M to $220M despite rising demand pressures. Non-profit social service agencies face the dual challenge of meeting growing demand while their operating costs rise with inflation and contract rates may not adjust accordingly.

Top 5 Relevant Budget Measures

1. Employment and Income Support at $1,255M -- a $258M or 26% increase from 2024-25, driven by population growth, higher caseloads, and $38M added for anticipated tariff impacts. Expense is flat in 2026-27 then decreases to $1,189M in 2027-28 as the government expects tariff impacts to recede.

2. AISH funding at $1,641M -- a net decrease of $49M from the 2024-25 forecast, attributed to differences in anticipated program delivery costs. Client income is described as unaffected, and AISH benefits remain above federal benchmarks. The Alberta Disability Assistance Program is set to launch in 2026.

Disability services at $1,710M -- an $86M increase, including $73M more for Persons with Developmental Disabilities, $9M for Family Support for Children with Disabilities, and $4M for program support. Increases are driven by caseload pressures.

Women's shelters increase of $19M over three years -- bolstering the $10M previously provided in the Safe Streets Action Plan. This addresses increasing demand and costs of providing refuge services for women and children fleeing abuse and violence.

Homelessness, outreach support services at $220M -- a $4M decrease from the 2024-25 forecast of $224M. In the context of rising unemployment (7.4%), continued population growth, and potential tariff-driven economic disruption, this allocation faces pressure.

Risks

AISH transition uncertainty. The $49M decrease in AISH funding and the 2026 launch of the Alberta Disability Assistance Program creates uncertainty for the approximately 70,000+ AISH recipients and the service agencies that support them. While the government states benefits remain the same, the transition process -- new eligibility criteria, application processes, and employment support integration -- will require significant client support.

Demand exceeding allocation. The $38M added for tariff impacts within Employment and Income Support may be insufficient if economic conditions deteriorate beyond the government's moderate trade conflict assumption. Non-profit agencies delivering employment programs may face caseload surges without proportional funding.

Contract rate stagnation. Non-profit agencies face inflation of 2.6%, rising wages to attract and retain staff, and increasing facility costs. If government contract rates for service delivery do not adjust to reflect these cost increases, agencies must cut services, reduce staff, or rely more heavily on charitable donations.

Homelessness funding gap. The $4M decrease in homelessness support occurs against a backdrop of rising unemployment, population growth, and housing affordability challenges. Service providers may face increased demand with reduced per-client resources.

Operating cost pressures. Tariffs of 15% on imported goods increase the cost of food, clothing, transportation, and other items that non-profit agencies provide to or procure for clients. These costs flow through to agency budgets without corresponding contract rate adjustments.

Opportunities

Employment program expansion. The $1,255M allocation (26% increase) creates opportunities for non-profit agencies that deliver employment readiness, job placement, and skills development services. The $38M for tariff-related demand suggests the government expects to contract additional employment support services.

Alberta Disability Assistance Program. While the transition creates uncertainty, the new program is designed to better empower disabled Albertans to work without significant reductions in income assistance or medical benefits. Non-profit agencies specializing in disability employment support may see expanded mandates and funding.

Women's shelter investment. The $19M increase, combined with the existing $10M from the Safe Streets Action Plan, provides meaningful new resources for shelter services. Agencies operating women's shelters can plan for enhanced services, facility improvements, and staff retention.

Housing program partnerships. ASHC operating programs at $343M and capital programs at $767M over three years for housing create partnership opportunities for non-profits involved in social housing, supportive housing, and housing-first approaches to homelessness.

Alberta Child and Family Benefit growth. The increase to $375M and projected growth to $415M by 2027-28 flows through to low-income families, providing resources that reduce the demand pressure on some non-profit services.

Likely Government Intent

The government recognizes that tariff-driven economic disruption will increase demand for income support and employment services. The 26% increase in Employment and Income Support is a preemptive response to anticipated job losses and economic hardship. The AISH transition to the Alberta Disability Assistance Program reflects a policy intent to integrate disability support with employment incentives, encouraging participation while maintaining benefits. The government views non-profit agencies as essential service delivery partners and expects them to scale up during economic disruption, but the budget signals that contract rate increases may not keep pace with cost pressures.

Immediate Questions to Ask Ministries

1. Seniors, Community and Social Services: What is the timeline and transition process for the Alberta Disability Assistance Program, and how will non-profit service agencies supporting AISH clients be engaged?

2. Seniors, Community and Social Services: Will government contract rates for non-profit service delivery be adjusted to reflect inflation and tariff-driven cost increases in 2025-26?

3. Seniors, Community and Social Services: How will the $19M women's shelter increase be allocated among shelter operators, and what application or reporting requirements apply?

4. Jobs, Economy and Trade: What employment support service procurement is anticipated under the $1,255M allocation, and how can non-profit agencies access these contracts?

5. Seniors, Community and Social Services: What contingency plans exist if Employment and Income Support caseloads exceed the budgeted $1,255M due to tariff impacts worse than the moderate scenario?

48-Hour Action Checklist

• Analyze budget implications for own agency contract funding and service delivery capacity
• Review AISH transition details and prepare client communication plan
• Assess employment program capacity against anticipated demand increase
• Brief board on budget social services measures and financial implications for the agency
• Contact Seniors, Community and Social Services for program-specific guidance
• Identify women's shelter and housing program funding opportunities
• Prepare staff communication on budget implications for workload and programming

30-Day Monitoring Checklist

• Engage ministry on contract rate adjustment advocacy for inflation cost recovery
• Prepare Alberta Disability Assistance Program transition plan with client supports
• Monitor employment support caseload data for early signals of tariff-driven demand
• Review housing program procurement for partnership opportunities
• Assess staff recruitment and retention against competitive wage environment
• Engage non-profit sector associations on collective advocacy for funding adequacy
• Track homelessness service demand data against the $220M allocation

Suggested Message Frames

Frame 1 -- Safety Net Delivery: Non-profit social service agencies are the delivery mechanism for Budget 2025's $1.26B in income support, $1.71B in disability services, and $220M in homelessness programs. Every dollar allocated to these programs reaches Albertans through the dedicated, professional staff of community-based organizations.

Frame 2 -- Demand Response: The 26% increase in Employment and Income Support acknowledges that tariff-driven economic disruption will increase demand for social services. Non-profit agencies stand ready to scale up, but they need contract rates that reflect actual delivery costs, including inflation, tariff-driven cost increases, and competitive wages for staff.

Frame 3 -- Community Resilience: Non-profit social service agencies are the fabric of community resilience across Alberta. From women's shelters providing safety to employment programs creating pathways to independence, these organizations help Albertans through difficult periods and back to self-sufficiency. Government investment in the non-profit sector is investment in community strength.

Opposition Narratives to Anticipate

"Income support creates dependency." Counter with data showing that the majority of income support recipients are in short-term need and return to employment. Employment support programs help people develop skills, find work, and become self-sufficient.

"AISH cuts are reducing support for disabled Albertans." Clarify that the government states benefits remain the same and client income is unaffected. The Alberta Disability Assistance Program is designed to enhance employment opportunities without reducing benefits. Advocate for transparent monitoring of client outcomes during the transition.

"Non-profits are inefficient service providers." Respond with data on overhead ratios, service outcomes, and cost-per-client comparisons that demonstrate non-profit efficiency. Community-based organizations often deliver services at lower cost than government alternatives.

"Women's shelter funding should come from private donors." Counter that domestic violence is a public safety and public health issue. Government funding for shelters is an essential public service that protects vulnerable women and children.

Data Points to Monitor

• Employment and Income Support caseload data and monthly trends
• AISH client count and benefit levels during transition period
• Alberta Disability Assistance Program development milestones
• Women's shelter utilization rates and referral data
• Homelessness service demand and shelter occupancy rates
• Non-profit contract rate adjustment announcements
• Inflation data and operating cost trends for non-profit agencies
• Labour market data: unemployment rate trajectory toward 7.4%
• PDD caseload growth and funding adequacy
• Alberta Child and Family Benefit enrollment and payment data
• Tariff impact on prices for food, clothing, and other client support items