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Stakeholder Memo

Alberta Budget 2025: Teachers' Association Stakeholder Brief

Budget 2025 analysis for teachers' associations: compensation trends, classroom complexity, enrolment growth, and collective bargaining dynamics.

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Risks & Opportunities

Risks

  • Contingency of $4B includes collective bargaining costs, signaling government expects significant negotiations
  • Classroom complexity at $55M may be insufficient for the level of support teachers need
  • Enrolment growth at 4.5% operating increase may not provide enough staff to reduce class sizes
  • Public sector compensation growth of 3.2% overall may be used to benchmark teacher salary expectations
  • Education property tax increases may generate taxpayer resistance that constrains future education funding

Opportunities

  • $4B contingency explicitly includes collective bargaining implications, signaling fiscal room for negotiations
  • Classroom complexity funding creates new positions for educational assistants and specialists
  • Mental health classroom expansion from 20 to 60 recognizes student and teacher mental health needs
  • $102M career education over three years creates new teaching and program delivery positions
  • Funding formula revision benefits high-growth boards, reducing class size pressures in growing communities

Suggested Message Frames

“Alberta's teachers are the foundation of quality education. Budget 2025's $55M classroom complexity funding recognizes that teachers need support -- educational assistants, specialists, and manageable class sizes -- to deliver the excellent education Alberta families expect.”

“The $4B contingency explicitly acknowledges collective bargaining. Alberta's teachers expect fair compensation that reflects their education, dedication, and the rising cost of living. Competitive salaries are essential for recruiting and retaining the teachers Alberta needs.”

“Alberta teachers are on the front line of managing unprecedented enrolment growth. Every new student needs a qualified teacher. Budget 2025 must translate funding into the classroom resources and staffing levels that make quality education possible.”

Executive Summary

Budget 2025 increases Education operating to $9,883M with school jurisdiction compensation at $7,537M, up $377M or 5.3% from 2024-25. The $55M classroom complexity allocation for educational assistants and specialists, the expansion of mental health classrooms from 20 to 60, and the $814M enrolment growth funding address key teacher concerns about working conditions. The doubling of the contingency to $4B, explicitly referencing collective bargaining currently underway, signals the government has budgeted fiscal room for compensation negotiations. However, the challenge remains translating budget allocations into tangible classroom improvements -- reduced class sizes, adequate support staff, and working conditions that retain experienced teachers.

Top 5 Relevant Budget Measures

  1. School jurisdiction compensation at $7,537M -- up $377M or 5.3% from 2024-25, rising to $8,213M by 2027-28. This is the largest line item in education spending and encompasses teacher salaries, benefits, and support staff compensation.

  2. Contingency at $4B, explicitly including collective bargaining -- the budget states the contingency is intended to address compensation expense for collective bargaining currently underway. This signals the government has reserved fiscal room for negotiated increases beyond the base education budget.

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  • Classroom complexity funding at $55M in 2025-26 -- for training and hiring more educational assistants and specialists, directly addressing teacher concerns about managing increasingly diverse classroom needs without adequate support.

  • $1.6B for specialized learning supports in 2025-26 -- through Specialized Learning Supports, Program Unit Funding, English as an Additional Language, Refugee Students, and First Nations, Metis and Inuit student programs. This acknowledges the scope of differentiated student needs in classrooms.

  • Mental health classroom expansion from 20 to 60 -- providing clinical support to students with complex mental health needs. This recognizes the growing mental health challenges affecting both students and the teachers who support them.

  • Risks

    Contingency allocation uncertainty. While the $4B contingency references collective bargaining, there is no guarantee about how much will be allocated to teacher compensation versus other contingency uses (tariff response, disasters, other labour negotiations). The contingency is a shared pool, not a dedicated education amount.

    Classroom complexity funding adequacy. The $55M is a starting point, not a comprehensive solution. Teachers report that classrooms include students with increasingly complex learning, behavioural, and mental health needs. The funding must translate into actual positions in actual classrooms to be meaningful.

    Class size pressure from enrolment growth. While $814M addresses enrolment growth over three years, the funding must be sufficient to hire enough teachers to maintain or reduce class sizes. If boards use enrolment growth funding primarily for non-instructional costs, class sizes may not improve.

    Public sector compensation benchmarking. Overall public sector compensation growth of 3.2% may be used by government to frame expectations for teacher negotiations. Teachers may argue that the education sector faces unique recruitment and retention challenges that require above-average increases.

    CPI and cost of living. Inflation at 2.6% and shelter cost pressures, particularly in Edmonton and Calgary, affect teacher purchasing power. Any compensation increase below inflation represents a real-terms decrease for teachers.

    Opportunities

    Collective bargaining fiscal room. The explicit reference to collective bargaining in the $4B contingency description is the clearest signal that the government anticipates and has budgeted for meaningful negotiated compensation increases. This strengthens the association's bargaining position by demonstrating fiscal capacity.

    Classroom complexity as working condition improvement. The $55M for educational assistants and specialists addresses a core teacher concern. Every additional EA in a classroom directly improves the teaching environment for the lead teacher and outcomes for students. This framing connects compensation to working conditions.

    Enrolment growth staffing. The $814M in enrolment growth funding must ultimately translate into teacher hiring. In growing boards, new positions will be created, providing career opportunities for early-career teachers and reducing class sizes in expanding schools.

    Mental health support expansion. The expansion of mental health classrooms from 20 to 60 acknowledges the growing burden that student mental health places on classroom teachers. Dedicated clinical support in schools reduces the demands on teachers to serve as front-line mental health providers.

    Career education investment. The $102M over three years for career education creates new teaching and program delivery positions in hands-on learning programs. This diversifies career pathways within the teaching profession.

    Likely Government Intent

    The government is balancing its commitment to education growth with overall fiscal discipline during a deficit year. The $4B contingency with collective bargaining reference is a strategic signal -- it demonstrates fiscal responsibility (not committing to specific amounts) while providing assurance that money exists for negotiations. The classroom complexity and mental health classroom investments respond to visible public advocacy from teachers and parents. The government wants to be seen as investing in education while maintaining control over the pace and scale of compensation increases through the bargaining process.

    Immediate Questions to Ask Ministries

    1. Treasury Board and Finance: What portion of the $4B contingency is earmarked or anticipated for education sector collective bargaining, and what is the expected timeline for reaching agreements?

    2. Education: How will the $55M classroom complexity funding be distributed among school boards, and what staffing ratios or standards will guide the hiring of educational assistants?

    3. Education: What class size data does the ministry track, and how will enrolment growth funding specifically support maintaining or reducing class sizes?

    4. Education: How will the mental health classroom expansion from 20 to 60 be implemented across the province, and what support will teachers in these classrooms receive?

    5. Treasury Board and Finance: What inflation assumptions underpin the public sector compensation projections, and how does the government assess competitive compensation for education workers?

    48-Hour Action Checklist

    • Analyze school jurisdiction compensation data ($7.5B) and map against membership salary expectations
    • Review $4B contingency language and assess fiscal room signals for bargaining strategy
    • Brief association executive and local presidents on budget education measures
    • Prepare member communication highlighting classroom complexity funding and bargaining implications
    • Assess mental health classroom expansion timeline and teacher staffing requirements
    • Review education property tax increase implications for public messaging about education investment
    • Coordinate with other education sector unions on common budget analysis

    30-Day Monitoring Checklist

    • Develop comprehensive bargaining brief incorporating budget fiscal framework analysis
    • Track school board staffing decisions to assess whether funding translates to classroom positions
    • Monitor classroom complexity implementation for actual educational assistant hiring
    • Engage public through media on the connection between teacher investment and student outcomes
    • Assess school construction timelines for impact on teacher deployment and working conditions
    • Track inflation data and cost of living indicators for bargaining evidence
    • Monitor other public sector agreements for precedent-setting compensation patterns

    Suggested Message Frames

    Frame 1 -- Investing in Educators: Alberta's children deserve dedicated, well-supported teachers in every classroom. Budget 2025's classroom complexity funding and enrolment growth investments must translate into the support staff, manageable class sizes, and professional resources that teachers need to provide excellent education.

    Frame 2 -- Fair Compensation in a Growing Province: Alberta's teachers are managing the most significant enrolment growth in a generation while inflation erodes purchasing power. The $4B contingency acknowledges that fair collective bargaining outcomes are needed. Teachers expect compensation that reflects their qualifications, commitment, and the cost of living in Alberta.

    Frame 3 -- Mental Health and Wellbeing: Budget 2025's expansion of mental health classrooms from 20 to 60 recognizes what teachers have long reported -- student mental health needs are growing, and teachers need clinical support. Investing in student mental health is investing in teacher wellbeing and classroom effectiveness.

    Opposition Narratives to Anticipate

    "Teacher compensation is already generous." Respond with comparative data on teacher workload, credentials, cost of living in Alberta cities, and recruitment challenges. Provincial comparison data should show where Alberta ranks on compensation relative to cost of living.

    "Classroom complexity is a board management issue, not a funding issue." Counter that the province sets the inclusion framework and the funding formula. Boards cannot hire staff they cannot afford, and the province's policy of inclusive education requires provincial funding for the support resources that make inclusion work.

    "Education spending is growing faster than the economy." Respond that education spending growth is driven by enrolment growth from population increases. Per-pupil spending growth should be the relevant metric, and it should at minimum match inflation and cost of living increases.

    Data Points to Monitor

    • School jurisdiction compensation data and year-over-year growth rates
    • Contingency allocation decisions and education sector-specific amounts
    • Classroom complexity fund distribution and educational assistant hiring numbers
    • Class size data by school board and grade level
    • Teacher vacancy and substitute teacher utilization rates
    • Mental health classroom implementation progress and geographic distribution
    • Education property tax rates and community response
    • CPI and shelter cost data for Alberta major cities
    • Other public sector collective agreement outcomes and precedents
    • Enrolment growth data by school authority and student demographics

    Sources

    • 1.Fiscal Plan 2025-28